Anticipation

Unbelievable. The Bush administration doesn't get out much. The breach of the levees, violence in Iraq, ... you name it ... this isn't rocket science. Nearly everyone outside the bubble anticipated an insurgency in Iraq, violence, a civil war, etc, and said so.

Today, June 19, 2006, over 3 years into a war in Iraq, at the National Press Club, Cheney was asked this question:

Q: "Do you think that you underestimated the insurgency's strength?"

Cheney: "I think so, umm I guess, the uh, if I look back on it now. I don't think anybody anticipated the level of violence that we've encountered..."

I guess that depends on what the definition of "anybody" is:

Harry Dunphy, Associated Press, 10/5/2002:

"Even before hostilities erupt in a war with Iraq, what happens the day after President Saddam Hussein falls is raising critical questions. A new and legitimate authority may take time to emerge, civil war could break out between the majority Shiite and minority Sunni Arabs, and Kurds in the north might press for an independent state, which U.S. ally Turkey opposes."

Alan Colmes, 1/17/2003:

"I'm not a supporter of Saddam Hussein, contrary to those people who want to say, oh, if you're against war you must love Saddam Hussein. But sometimes the devil you know is worse than the devil you don't (sic). We don't know what's going to happen if he's not in power. We don't know that there won't be civil war breaking out. We don't know if there won't be incursions from the north and all kinds of conflict breaking out. We don't know what would happen or how many years we would have to put up a government or if we should put up a democracy, or could put up a democracy, in the middle of the Arab world. We know we can beat them in a war. But then what? And is it our role to overthrow a dictator of another country? Is that our role? I question that."

Youssef Ibrahim, Council on Foreign Relations, 2/19/2003:

"I don't want to find 100,000 American kids caught in the middle of a shooting war, a civil war, in which they don't know where the bullets are coming."

"The possible pitfalls are huge: The Consequences of War" by William Raspberry, March 2, 2003

"The U.S. is not prepared: Unready for the Aftermath" by Kenneth H. Bacon and George Rupp, March 6, 2003

Paul Krugman, 5/16/2003:

"Saddam wasn't a threat to America -- he had no important links to terrorism, and the main U.S. team searching for weapons of mass destruction has packed up and gone home. Meanwhile, true to form, the Bush team lost focus as soon as the TV coverage slackened off. The first result was an orgy of looting -- including looting of nuclear waste dumps that, incredibly, we failed to secure. Dirty bombs, anyone? Now, according to an article in The New Republic, armed Iraqi factions are preparing for civil war."

Will Sunnis fight Shiites in Iraq? by Juan Cole, July 22, 2003

"Blix Says Iraq War Stimulated Terrorism" by Patrick McLoughlin, October 13, 2003

Diane Feinstein, 11/3/2003:

"We must prevent civil war. And we must see to it that Iraq does not become a base for terror and instability throughout the region."

"How the US is Sowing Gridlock in Iraq" by Juan Cole, March 14, 2004.

"Welcome to the quagmire" by Juan Cole, March 19, 2004

"Iraq on the brink of anarchy" by Robert Fisk, April 6, 2004

"The U.S. Is Losing Control in Iraq" by Juan Cole, April 6, 2004

Robert Byrd, 4/7/2004:

"And from the flood of disturbing dispatches from Iraq, it is clear that many Iraqis, both Sunni and Shiite, are seething under the yoke of the American occupation. The recent violent uprising by followers of a radical Shiite cleric is by far the most troubling development in Iraq in months and could signal America's worst nightmare -- a civil war in Iraq that pits moderate Shiites against radical Shiites. Layered over the persistent insurgency being waged by disgruntled Iraqi Sunnis and radical Islamic operatives, a Shiite civil war could be the event that topples Iraq from instability into utter chaos."

"Iraq: all together against the occupation" by Juan Cole, May 2004

Al Gore, 5/26/2004:

"And the worst still lies ahead. General Joseph Hoar, the former head of the Marine Corps, said 'I believe we are absolutely on the brink of failure. We are looking into the abyss.' When a senior, respected military leader like Joe Hoar uses the word 'abyss,' then the rest of us damn well better listen. Here is what he means: more American soldiers dying, Iraq slipping into worse chaos and violence, no end in sight, with our influence and moral authority seriously damaged."

"The Saddamist / Islamist Resistance Will Win" by Scott Ritter, July 24, 2004

"How Iraq Is About to Explode" Robert Fisk, August 6, 2004

"Crushing Iraq's insurgency may take up to 10 years" Middle East Online (UK), August 23, 2004

"Iraq resistance far from over" New Straits Times, August 28, 2004

"Saddam's Baath Party is back in business" Knight Ridder Newspapers. September 7, 2004

"Iraq Descends into Chaos" Luke Harding, September 15, 2004

"Why the insurgency won't go away" Boston Review, October, 2004

"Moving Towards Open Civil War" Seymour Hersh, May 11, 2005

Iraq May Be Prime Place for Training of Militants, C.I.A. Report Concludes, The New York Times, June 22, 2005:

"A new classified assessment by the Central Intelligence Agency says Iraq may prove to be an even more effective training ground for Islamic extremists than Afghanistan was in Al Qaeda's early days, because it is serving as a real-world laboratory for urban combat.
...
The officials said it made clear that the war was likely to produce a dangerous legacy by dispersing to other countries Iraqi and foreign combatants more adept and better organized than they were before the conflict."

Juan Cole, 8/22/2005:

"...you could argue that what is going on now [in Iraq] is a subterranean, unconventional civil war..."

Richard Lugar, 12/4/2005:

"There could be a civil war. But that would be catastrophic, not only for Iraq but the Middle East and for our interests."

Evan Bayh, 2/2/2006:

"There are consequences to prosecuting a war on toughness alone. Iraq was not a haven for foreign terrorists before March 2003, but it is now. Iraq did not face the prospect of full-scale civil war, before March 2003, but it does now. Iraq was not susceptible to Iranian influence before March 2003, but it is now."

And those are just articles and quotes by pundits and politicians. Consider the hundreds, or rather, thousands, of hard news articles about escalating violence and deaths in Iraq over the last three years. Our Vice President has been tuning them all out. Meanwhile, back at the ranch:

George W. Bush, 4/19/2004:

"And there's no doubt in my mind that Iraq will be free and democratic and peaceful."

Dick Cheney on Meet the Press: 03/16/03:

Russert: If your analysis is not correct, and we’re not treated as liberators, but as conquerors, and the Iraqis begin to resist, particularly in Baghdad, do you think the American people are prepared for a long, costly, and bloody battle with significant American casualties?

Cheney: Well, I don’t think it’s likely to unfold that way, Tim, because I really do believe that we will be greeted as liberators.

I’ve talked with a lot of Iraqis in the last several months myself, had them to the White House. The president and I have met with them, various groups and individuals, people who have devoted their lives from the outside to trying to change things inside Iraq. And like Kanan Makiya who’s a professor at Brandeis, but an Iraqi, he’s written great books about the subject, knows the country intimately, and is a part of the democratic opposition and resistance. The read we get on the people of Iraq is there is no question but what they want to the get rid of Saddam Hussein and they will welcome as liberators the United States when we come to do that."

It takes these guys a few years to catch on. And even then, they've only partially caught on. Unbelievable.

The thing that is truly unbelievable, is that Cheney has not admitted he was wrong. And he clearly was. Instead, he says, "I don't think anybody anticipated the level of violence that we've encountered." What he's saying, is that in his opinion everyone in the world was just as wrong as he was. Obviously, many weren't. No lessons were learned, by Cheney. And Cheney still has a lot to do with US Foreign Policy. Be very afraid.